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Posted on Jun 20th, 7:45 PM, , User Since 7 months ago, User Post Count: 676
- Jun 20th, 7:45 PM
- 7 months
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Careful fellas, there's number and probability and head-to-head matchups stuff. Mind boggling stuff but might give some insight into why Vegas and pundits aren't all in on OState. Be boggled!
But question should be, what does OState need to do to decrease how erratic the team played last year for this season?
The truth of the matter is that Oklahoma State was incredibly fortunate in one-possession games in 2023. They were 5-1 in such games, and if history tells us anything, it’s that regression is likely when it comes to being on the right side of those sorts of outcomes. Historically, teams are right around .500 in one-score games, but the Pokes won those games 83% of the time last year.
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Posted on Jun 20th, 8:55 PM, , User Since 205 months ago, User Post Count: 6996
- Jun 20th, 8:55 PM
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Guess that’s why they play the games … motivation , coaching and who wants each game the most!
Posted on Jun 21st, 2:27 AM, , User Since 205 months ago, User Post Count: 5774
- Jun 21st, 2:27 AM
- 205 months
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That all seems pretty logical to me but I'm still optimistic about next season. We should have be light years head of where we were last year to open the season and that's important with a front loaded schedule plus we don't play Texas, uo and Iowa State this year and should be full of confidence going in to the season.
Posted on 19 hrs, , User Since 233 months ago, User Post Count: 18619
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Vegas and pundits never seem to think we'll be very good.
Posted on 19 hrs, , User Since 212 months ago, User Post Count: 1237
See AlsoKeiton Page stays on as an assistantSteve Lutz press conference updatesFans On Social Media Do Impact PlayersKind Of Sports Related...- 19 hrs
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I don't buy all the "you won all the close games last year so you're gonna lose all the close games this year' garbage. "It's a bunch of garbage" - HCMG
Maybe we won because we were better coached in those situations than the other teams. Maybe we won because we were in better shape than the other teams. Maybe we won because we are mentally tougher than other teams. Outcomes of games are rarely based 100% on luck and probabilities. My guess is that we will win a greater percentage of one score games than we lose again this year and as long as HCMG is coaching. I don't know what his history is with these games according to the numbers (someone who has more time could probably find it fairly easily) but I would guess he probably has a pretty good record in these games, maybe with the exception to uo.
Posted on 18 hrs, , User Since 9 months ago, User Post Count: 340
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osutoothdoctor said... (original post) I don't buy all the "you won all the close games last year so you're gonna lose all the close games this year' garbage. ...
100% agree with this. I like our chances in close games for the exact reasons you mentioned above. At the end of the day one team wins and the other loses. Did Vegas explain the previous year in which they predicted like 5 or 6 wins, and we won 10?
Posted on 16 hrs, , User Since 214 months ago, User Post Count: 7197
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agreed. Winning close games is not like a coin flip that is known 50/50.
Posted on 16 hrs, , User Since 183 months ago, User Post Count: 6410
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I think winning the close games is a product of Gundy being willing to kick field goals and punt when a lot of coaches now prefer to gamble. It ensures most of the time that we're in games in the 4th, at which point the game situation will dictate how aggressive we are. His conservatism drives us crazy at times, particularly against teams that have better talent where we know we probably need to take more risks to win. But against teams with equal talent, it's proved to be a winning philosophy.
Posted on 14 hrs, , User Since 205 months ago, User Post Count: 5774
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teachum said... (original post) I think winning the close games is a product of Gundy being willing to kick field goals and punt when a lot of coaches now prefer to gamble. It ens...
Can we blame him? He learned his coaching philosophy under Pat Jones's tutilage.
Posted on 14 hrs, , User Since 102 months ago, User Post Count: 1331
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Not all one score games are created equally. I suspect most of HCMG 1 score games are either the result of coming back from double digit deficits or because they had a multiple digit lead and let off the gas. Maybe I’m ’misremembering’ but I don’t recall, at least recently, that many games where it was back and forth throughout. I’m sure there were but I expect that’s the minority. What’s left unsaid in this analysis(?) is how many games do the pokes play annually, on avg, that are 1 score and what’s their record in those games. It seemed like the Rudolph led pokes played a lot of them and won them at a pretty decent clip but that might be OC glasses.
Posted on 13 hrs, , User Since 7 months ago, User Post Count: 676
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If you look a bit deeper into many of our games than say passing or rushing yards, and get into drive efficiency we were often very erratic on both sides of the ball. 3 incompletions stacked together ='s a punt, where as 3 incompletions spread over a 75 yard drive are to be expected.
I attribute some of this to both Offensive and Defensive play calling, not just on-field execution.
Posted on 13 hrs, , User Since 7 months ago, User Post Count: 676
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osutoothdoctor said... (original post) I don't buy all the "you won all the close games last year so you're gonna lose all the close games this year' garbage. ...
My guess is that we will win a greater percentage of one score games than we lose again this year and as long as HCMG is coaching. I don't know what his history is with these games according to the numbers (someone who has more time could probably find it fairly easily) but I would guess he probably has a pretty good record in these games, maybe with the exception to uo.
Probably can say the same thing for Utah's Whittingham and Kstate's Klieman. No one every points to coaching as an issue with these teams either.
Posted on 13 hrs, , User Since 7 months ago, User Post Count: 676
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Oklapoke32 said... (original post) 100% agree with this. I like our chances in close games for the exact reasons you mentioned above. At the end of the day one team wins and the o...
Vegas isn't "predicting" a teams season, but looking to call the win totals in order to balance out betting. Has nothing to do with "respect" or "reasoning" regarding the team, only on Vegas' assessment of human betting patterns.
I made a chunk on the 6.5 win total last year and expect to cash in on the 7.5 win total this year. Seems like really easy money.
Now my bets on OState winning the conference (and making the playoffs) I'm not nearly so bullish on. Too bad KState, Utah, WVU, UCF and KU are going to do their best to win the conference as well.
Posted on 12 hrs, , User Since 124 months ago, User Post Count: 788
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Seems like Gundy's playing style the past several years lends to more one score games. We don't tend to try and 'step on people's throats' when we have the lead. Given Bowman's INT problems being too aggressive could backfire, maybe thats the thought? IDK. Lets hope we just win.
Posted on 12 hrs, , User Since 233 months ago, User Post Count: 24157
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Frequently what tips the odds in close games is experience. We will have that advantage this season so I do expect us to be in the mix at the end of the regular season. It is an equation with a large number of variables but our experience will be one of the major attributes that carry this team. I don't really know that much about the teams on our schedule outside of last season's records so it should be interesting to see how our guys perform.
Posted on 10 hrs, , User Since 9 months ago, User Post Count: 340
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FermentedAgave said... (original post) Vegas isn't "predicting" a teams season, but looking to call the win totals in order to balance out betting. Has nothing to d...
I think their goal is to get even money on both sides like you said. I would guess they took a pretty big loss on last years over under. It doesn’t matter I’m glad they don’t think highly of us.
This post was edited by Oklapoke32 11 hours ago
Posted on 8 hrs, , User Since 7 months ago, User Post Count: 676
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Oklapoke32 said... (original post) I think their goal is to get even money on both sides like you said. I would guess they took a pretty big loss on last years over under. It does...
Only issue with being "under the radar" is our program doesn't get as much press coverage throughout the season. And media coverage does impact "market value" of viewers (that advertisers want to reach).
It pains me to see Utah and KState, and even KU, get as much "darling" treatment as they are getting.
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