Election latest: 'Enormous increase' in postal votes - as Starmer faces questions over cabinet rumours (2024)

Our deputy political editor Sam Coateshas been on the campaign trail in Banbury today - where Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer have been out in full force.

While travelling back, he says he spoke to one member of the government, who told him: "I just want to lose".

"One member of the government was a bit worried that he might win," he says.

"He was a bit concerned that some polls were showing him in second place because the outlook for the party is so gloomy, he just wants to get out."

Another Tory candidate was saying that there was a better reception on the doorstep in the last few days.

Reacting to the latest poll, which puts the Conservatives with just 64 seats at the end of the election, Sam says that would be a "wipe out".

"I know Tories who are feeding into the campaign saying theses are the kind of numbers that they are expecting too. It is looking very bad indeed," he adds.

There are just two days to go until the election, and people across the UK vote for the party they want to form the next government.

I know it's probably my job to drum up excitement about the election, to talk about jeopardy, to make it seem close - but let's get real.

We've all seen the polls, and the House of Commons projections.

We've all heard the Conservative message change throughout the campaign - until now the key line is people should vote to stop a Labour "supermajority".

You know a party isn't on course to win when the best they have to offer is "vote for us so we lose rather than get completely annihilated".

And you can also tell because the final skirmishes of the campaign are being fought in Banbury, which has been Conservative for 100 years.

Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer have both visited that leafy part of Oxfordshire in the dying days of the campaign, so I'm not going to insult your intelligence by trying to deny all the signs are pointing towards a comfortable Labour majority.

That's not to say it won't be exciting - we could be looking at only the second change of government in 27 years, and a complete redrawing of the political map of the UK.

The Labour Party is almost certainly going to win a majority bigger than Tony Blair's 179-seat majority in 1997, Survation's final MRP poll before the general election predicts.

The pollster says Sir Keir Starmer will win 484 seats out of 650 - giving him a majority of 318 seats.

The Tories are set to crash to just 64 seats - and the Lib Dems are predicted to make huge gains, winning 61 seats.

Labour is also predicted to overtake the SNP as the largest party in Scotland, with the governing party in Holyrood predicted to win just 10 seats.

Here are the results in full:

• Labour: 484
• Conservatives: 64
• Lib Dems: 61
• SNP: 10
• Reform UK: 7
• Green Party: 3
• Plaid Cymru: 3

The poll is based on 34,558 interviews, using data gathered up until 1 July.

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgeis live now on Sky News.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

Sophy is joined tonight by the Tory migration ministerTom Pursgloveand the Labour shadow employment ministerAlison McGovern.

On Sophy's panel tonight are:

• Jo Tanner, former Tory adviser;
• Sonia Sodha, chief lead writer at The Observer.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgefrom Monday to Thursday on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.

Former Labour adviser Ayesha Hazarika is back with Sky's political editor Beth Rigby and Tory peer Ruth Davidson for the last few days of the election campaign.

On this episode, they discuss how Beth is preparing for election night – what constituencies to look out for, and they give a listener advice on election snacks.

They also discuss the final days of campaigning and why the Tories are attacking Sir Keir Starmer for suggesting he will finish work at 6pm on a Friday night if he becomes prime minister.

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Email Beth, Ruth, and Ayesha at electoraldysfunction@sky.uk, post on X to @BethRigby, or send a WhatsApp voice note on 07934 200 444.

Disabled people have the right to vote independently and in secret - and local authorities have a legal duty to make sure they can do this.

There are minimum access requirements that must be in place at polling stations, and people who may have difficulties voting are also entitled to ask for help from staff.

Our reporter Josephine Frankslooks at what you need to know about voting as a disabled person, drawn from an advocate with lived experience, charities campaigning on accessible voting, and guidelines from the Electoral Commission:

We heard a short while ago from SNP leader John Swinney, and we asked him if he can see independence for Scotland within two or three years.

The first minister replied: "Yes, I can.

"About half the population in Scotland want Scotland to be an independent country, and I want to make sure people in Scotland have that choice.

"I can't impose that on them. I just want them to have that choice."

It falls to the UK government to allow for an independence referendum, but the SNP believes doing well at this election and the 2026 Holyrood vote would provide them with a mandate to demand one.

Both Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer have said they are opposed to another referendum in the next parliament.

Asked how he can win back support for the SNP, which has been dropping recently, Mr Swinney replied that anyone who wants independence for Scotland should back his party.

"We need independence because we are suffering just now because of austerity - a decision made in Westminster which is going to be carried on in Westminster.

"So if there was ever a clear illustration of why we need independence, it's to end austerity, and people will do that if they vote for the SNP in this election."

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgewill be live on Sky News from 7pm.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

Sophy is joined tonight by the Tory migration minister Tom Pursglove and the Labour shadow employment minister Alison McGovern.

On Sophy's panel tonight are:

• Jo Tanner, former Tory adviser;
• Sonia Sodha, chief lead writer at The Observer.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hubfrom 7pm every night during the election campaign on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.

"There's no point in voting. They're all the same. Nothing ever changes anyway."

In the run-up to general electionspast and present, you may have heard various iterations of the above from friends, family, colleagues, and strangers.

Repeated political scandals have seen the public's distrust of politicians and voter apathy increase. At the 2019 General Election, roughly a third (32.7%) of the country didn't vote.

At the link below, we look back at changes brought in by both Conservative and Labour governments that have fundamentally changed day-to-day life in the UK - many for the better.

Tory candidate and ex-minister Andrew Jenkyns has shared and welcomed a video by a former UKIP leader endorsing her to win her seat.

Henry Bolton, who led UKIP from September 2017 until the following February when he was removed as leader amid a scandal, said Ms Jenkyns has "been an outstanding local MP", and described her as a "passionate and dedicated social and cultural conservative".

Ms Jenkyns is on the right of the Tory party and has repeatedly called for the return of former prime minister Boris Johnson.

Mr Bolton said they share beliefs about "preserving our history, our heritage, our culture, and our way of life", and said she would be key to countering the "socialist" Labour government most are predicting.

But he also said - in the same video - that Reform UK candidates might be better options in some seats.

Ms Jenkyns, who served as skills minister from July 2022, just after Mr Johnson's announcement of his resignation, until the end of Liz Truss' very brief tenure, thanked him for his "kind endorsem*nt".

The candidate inLeeds South West and Morley has also had Nigel Farage, who previously led UKIP and now runs Reform, on her election leaflets.

Here is the full list of candidates in the constituency:

• Chris Bell, Green Party;
• Howard Graham Dews, Yorkshire Party;
  
• Michael Fox, Liberal Democrats;
  
• Andrea Jenkyns, Conservative Party;
  
• James Kendall, Reform UK;
  
• Nigel Perry, Social Democratic Party;
  
• Mark Sewards, Labour Party.